The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, up from 3.0% in July, and the main reason is artificial intelligence. In its October World Economic Outlook, the Fund says strong investment in AI infrastructure is offsetting much of the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East. It also warns that the economy’s resilience “is reaching its limits”.
The numbers
According to Reuters’ report on the outlook, the IMF now expects:
- global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027;
- 2.3% for the United States in both years;
- 1.1% for the euro zone in 2026, up from 0.9%;
- 4.5% for China and 7.0% for India in 2026;
- global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026.
Upgrades went to economies building AI capacity or supplying its hardware, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand. The forecast assumes oil averaging $96 a barrel in 2026 and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming by March 2027.
AI as a growth engine
Private AI investment worldwide is estimated to exceed $2 trillion this year, with the United States and China accounting for more than three-quarters of net global demand for chips and AI equipment, according to Tech Times. That spending supports construction, energy, semiconductors and cloud services, and it is also expected to add upward pressure on prices.
Growth is becoming more concentrated: the IMF says 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April.
The downside scenario
The Fund lists a reassessment of AI profitability among the main risks, alongside a longer Middle East war, rising bond yields and extreme weather. In its adverse scenario, if expected AI productivity gains fail to materialize, U.S. output could fall 1.8% and global output 1.1% by 2028. In the upside case, faster AI adoption could add 0.6% to global GDP by 2029.
“The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said, urging governments to “restore fiscal space” and rebuild supply-side resilience.
What it means for business
For companies, the message is twofold. AI investment is now macroeconomically significant, so its returns matter beyond the tech sector. And the gap between spending and measured productivity is the variable to watch: boards should ask not only how much they invest in AI, but where it is changing costs, revenue or risk in ways they can measure.
For Switzerland, an export economy with strong positions in precision manufacturing, pharma and finance, the concentration of growth in AI-building economies is both an opportunity for suppliers and a reminder of exposure to a sector-wide correction.
