Bitcoin was trading around $66,000 in Asian markets Friday after Standard Chartered delivered some sobering news: the bank slashed its year-end 2026 price target from $150,000 down to $100,000. This is the second major cut in three months, and the bank is warning that Bitcoin could drop as low as $50,000 before finding stable ground.
Geoffrey Kendrick, who heads digital assets at Standard Chartered, pointed to weakening demand from multiple angles. Corporate Bitcoin treasury accumulation—the MicroStrategy playbook that generated so much excitement—seems to have run its course. That leaves ETF inflows as basically the only major bullish catalyst, and even those are facing headwinds from institutional redemptions and broader risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin dropped as low as $65,079 during New York trading Thursday, a 4% intraday decline, before recovering about 1% in Singapore. Ethereum mirrored the weakness, hovering around $1,940 near weekly lows. The selloff in smaller cryptocurrencies intensified even further.
Why Standard Chartered Changed Its Mind
The bank’s bearish reassessment reflects what a lot of institutions are quietly thinking. Back in December, they initially slashed their target from $300,000, citing fading corporate buying. Companies adopting digital asset treasury strategies hit valuation limits, which shifted all the optimism onto ETF flows. Now those ETF flows are reversing.
Kendrick is anticipating what he calls “final capitulation”—a worst-case scenario where quarterly ETF outflows accelerate to $12 billion, Bitcoin miners give up because their all-in costs are around $40,000 and unprofitable, and hedge funds face forced liquidations from margin calls. We’ve already seen $4.2 billion in margin call liquidations hit the market.
The $50,000 floor isn’t random. It lines up with the realized price (essentially the average cost basis of all holders) and the 200-week moving average—two metrics that have historically provided strong support during major drawdowns of 70% or more.
If Bitcoin does capitulate to that level and then recover, Standard Chartered is targeting $100,000 by December 2026. But that assumes the Federal Reserve pivots to cut interest rates mid-year, and there’s a real risk that tariff-induced inflation forces them to keep rates higher for longer.
Market Internals Show Stress
The underlying market structure reveals serious distress. Exchange reserves are at four-year lows as long-term holders have accumulated 318,000 Bitcoin since the January peaks. That suggests conviction from true believers, but it also means liquidity is drying up.
Futures open interest has collapsed 28% to $92 billion—the lowest level since ETF approvals. This reflects deleveraging rather than new long positions being opened. Funding rates across major exchanges like Binance and Bybit have turned negative, which incentivizes short positions. Long liquidations hit $2.8 billion in a single week.
Even Coinbase posted a $95 million loss in Q4, with trading volume down 62% year-over-year. The institutional flows that everyone was counting on have reversed.
The Macro Environment Isn’t Helping
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance is keeping interest rate expectations at 5.25-5.50%. Trump’s aggressive tariffs—25% on Mexican and Canadian goods, 60% on Chinese imports—are pushing inflation forecasts up to 4.2%. That’s strengthening the dollar index to 108 and crushing risky assets across the board.
Global manufacturing indicators are contracting at 47.8, signaling recession risks. The $2.1 trillion wipeout in total crypto market cap mirrors the dynamics from the 2022 crypto winter.
Bitcoin dominance (its share of total crypto market cap) has climbed to 58%, the highest since November. That’s actually bad for the broader crypto ecosystem because it means money is flowing out of alternative cryptocurrencies and into Bitcoin as a relative safe haven—but even Bitcoin can’t escape the overall downward pressure.
Technical Picture Looks Fragile
The $64,000 level (the 50-day exponential moving average) is providing immediate support. If that breaks, the next targets are $58,000 (June lows) and then the $50,000 floor Standard Chartered is warning about.
The Relative Strength Index is deeply oversold at 28, which typically signals a bounce is coming. But the MACD histogram is deepening, confirming bearish momentum. The “golden cross” formation from December—where short-term averages cross above long-term ones, typically a bullish signal—is being invalidated by a looming “death cross” where the opposite happens.
On-chain metrics are mixed. The MVRV Z-Score at 1.8 suggests Bitcoin is undervalued relative to historical cycles. But other indicators warn against calling a bottom prematurely.
Institutions Are Split
Institutional behavior is all over the place. BlackRock’s IBIT product is still absorbing $450 million in weekly inflows despite net outflows across the broader ETF market. Fidelity’s FBTC is seeing rotation into gold ETFs as the correlation between Bitcoin and equities breaks down in weird ways.
MicroStrategy has paused its $2 billion at-the-market equity offering program. Tether just minted $1 billion USDT, which some interpret as preparation for providing liquidity during distressed conditions.
Bitcoin miner hashrate has dropped 12% as unprofitable mining operations shut down. A difficulty adjustment of -5.8% is coming, which will make mining slightly easier for those who survive.
The Bull Case Still Exists
Despite all the doom and gloom, there are reasons to think this isn’t the end. The halving supply shock is mathematically intact—Bitcoin block rewards are now just 3.125 BTC per block. Institutional interest hasn’t been destroyed, just delayed. Trump continues talking about a crypto reserve despite the carnage hitting crypto lenders.
The ETF infrastructure is maturing with $118 billion in cumulative assets under management. That positions the market well for renewed inflows once the Fed does eventually pivot.
Historical logarithmic regression bands suggest $50,000 could be the cycle bottom. The 2021 precedent showed 4x recoveries from similarly oversold extremes.
What It Means
Standard Chartered’s warning is essentially a reality check. Bitcoin’s core thesis as a store of value can withstand shocks, but the narratives around payments and utility need fresh catalysts to work.
Asian market stabilization is testing everyone’s conviction. Japanese yen carry trade unwinding and Chinese capital controls are making downside risks worse.
Long-term holders are accumulating. Speculators are capitulating. Getting to $100,000 by year-end requires basically flawless macro alignment—the Fed pivoting at exactly the right time, inflation coming down, risk appetite returning. The $50,000 path is looking like the default scenario that clears out the weak hands.
Bitcoin will endure—it always has. But this cycle is looking bloodied, and the path forward requires either perfect execution or a lot more pain before recovery begins.
