Bitcoin has been totally destroyed in early February 2026. It is now trading around $60,000, down more than 30% from its peak near $100,000 in late 2025. We’re talking about $400 billion that has been taken out of the crypto market. And yes, this is happening even though Trump is said to be the “most pro-crypto president ever.”
People who put all their money into the “Trump trade” thinking Bitcoin would go up forever are learning a hard lesson: politics doesn’t change the big picture.
How We Got Here Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies definitely helped Bitcoin’s rise in 2025. At a Bitcoin conference in July 2024, he promised to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and talked about setting up a national Bitcoin reserve. He announced reserves that would include Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, and Solana after his inauguration in January 2025. This was basically a way to please every major crypto community.
The GENIUS Act put rules on stablecoins that the industry wanted. Deregulation led by Republicans broke down barriers, allowing more institutional money to flow in. Bitcoin reached its highest point ever. ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT had crazy amounts of trading. Everything felt good.
Until it didn’t.
What Really Made the Crash Happen
Of course, a lot of things came together at once.
The stock market is very unstable. Global stocks dropped a lot, especially tech stocks and growth companies. That went straight into Bitcoin, which, let’s be honest, still acts like a speculative tech stock most of the time. When the Nasdaq goes down, Bitcoin usually goes down too. The connection that everyone thought was gone came back with a bang.
The Federal Reserve is still hawkish. On January 28th, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept rates the same, which killed hopes for rate cuts. Trump then chose Kevin Warsh to take Powell’s place. Warsh is known for pushing for higher real rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet. Markets took that to mean “rates staying higher for longer,” and Bitcoin fell the most since 2018.
A lot of deleveraging. When Bitcoin broke through important technical support levels like the 50-week moving average, billions of dollars in leveraged long positions were sold. Funds’ automated stop-losses and risk management rules caused a chain reaction of selling. The spiral of liquidation feeds on itself once it starts.
Dumping miners. Bitcoin miners were hurt by low block rewards and high energy costs. They began selling their assets to improve their finances, especially those who were trying to switch to running AI data centers after the hype died down.
Trump’s policies didn’t work.
The funny thing is that some of Trump’s own policies helped bring down the thing he says he supports.
New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, with threats of 100% tariffs on rare-earth imports, made people worry about inflation. That gave the Fed even more reason to keep rates high. As bond yields went up, safe cash became more appealing than unstable crypto.
The drama in foreign policy didn’t help either. Comments about Ukraine, tensions in Venezuela, and general instability around the world all hurt confidence and risk assets. Paul Krugman, an economist, said that Bitcoin basically turned into a “Trumpism wager,” which was at risk of Trump’s approval ratings and policy chaos.
Credit problems at tech companies made “risk-on” sentiment even worse in all markets.
Different Ways to Look at What This Means
Analysts say more pain could be on the way. Kaiko said that Bitcoin is weak on a large scale. Deutsche Bank said that Trump’s nomination to the Federal Reserve was directly responsible for the drop. A lot of people aren’t saying “buy the dip” with much confidence right now.
But long-term bulls aren’t giving up completely. They say that Trump’s strategic reserves could be a floor, and they think that the economy could start to recover in the second quarter if rates go down. Historically, Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles have been strong, and this drop could fit that pattern.
Retail investors who lost money are either selling in a panic or trying to buy more at lower prices, depending on how sure they are and how much money they have left.
Institutions might look for deals, but they’re being careful because the market is still very unstable.
My Very Honest Opinion
The story that Trump was going to be president of crypto was always too simple. Yes, he is more crypto-friendly than other options. But the president’s support doesn’t change the policies of the Federal Reserve, the state of the global economy, market cycles, or basic economic facts.
Bitcoin went up in 2025 for a number of reasons, including Trump’s words, more institutions using it, ETF inflows, and the effects of the halving. It’s crashing now because different things are more important right now, like Fed policy, stress in the equity market, deleveraging, and uncertainty in the economy as a whole.
It’s too simple to blame or credit Trump for either direction. These markets are much more complicated than that. He’s just one of many factors, and right now the other factors are stronger than his pro-crypto view.
It annoys me that so many people made whole investment plans based on the idea that “Trump equals Bitcoin moon” without realising that policies can have unexpected effects. Inflation is caused by tariffs. Rates stay high because of inflation. High rates are bad for speculative assets. Looking back, it wasn’t that hard.
What Happens Next? No one knows, and anyone who says they do is lying.
Bitcoin could settle down around $60,000 and then rise again as the economy gets better and the effects of halving start to show. We could also see more losses if deleveraging keeps going, fears of a recession grow, or a new negative event happens.
The idea of a strategic reserve might help people feel better about the situation. If the government held Bitcoin, it could make people think that the price would never go below a certain level. But that’s more of a story than real buying pressure right away.
Volatility will still be very high no matter what. Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Wild swings are normal, not unusual.
For People Who Own Bitcoin
If you’re still making money after this crash, consider yourself lucky and think about how much risk you can handle. If you’re underwater, think about whether you’re holding long-term because of the fundamentals or just hoping to break even.
Don’t let the price changes of the day affect your feelings. But don’t forget to pay attention when your original investment thesis changes. If you bought just because “Trump loves crypto,” and now you see that doesn’t protect Bitcoin from big forces, maybe your thesis was wrong.
This could be a chance for people who are thinking about buying or a bad idea. It all depends on how long you have to wait, how much risk you’re willing to take, and how sure you are about Bitcoin’s long-term value.
The Bottom Line
Even though Trump was pro-crypto, Bitcoin fell from $100,000 to $60,000. This is because macro factors, Fed policy, market cycles, and economic reality are more important than what politicians say.
The story of the “crypto winter” might be too much—Bitcoin has been through much worse. But the easy money from the Trump rally is clearly over, and anyone who is still betting on endless gains is losing big time.
Bitcoin’s future depends less on Trump’s tweets and more on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve, the effects of tariffs, and the state of the global economy. All of these are boring macro factors that move markets over the long term.
Pro-crypto dreams are running into the economy, and right now, gravity is winning. We don’t know if this is a short-term fix or the start of something worse.
Welcome to crypto, where the “Trump pump” that everyone was sure about suddenly turns around and everyone is left trying to explain what “everyone knew all along.” There was never any real certainty.
